I was hoping for a rebound in May, but it was not to be. The real estate market continued its weak performance with a single family absorption rate of only 12.5% as compared to 52.8% for May of 2005. For condos, the absorption rate was a very weak 8.3% as compared to 51.5% for the same month last year. The absorption rate is the inventory turn and is calculated by dividing the number of units sold during the month by the total number of listings in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS).
Single Family Home Listings. At the end of May there were 8,564 homes listed on the MLS, as compared to 7,983 at the end of April. If you're selling, you had much more competition at the end of May than you did at any time in the last five years. For example, in May of 2005, there were only 2,727 single family homes listed for sale in the MLS. If you're a seller, the market has changed 180 degrees from where it was a year ago.
Single Family Home Sales. Sales increased a little in May as compared to April, 2006. In May there were 1,071 single family homes sold as compared to only 918 in April. Still, this was the worst May sales record since May of 2001. In May 2005 there were 1,439 single family homes sold. It appears that there simply are not as many buyers in the marketplace today as there have been in the past few years. The reason for fewer buyers? Higher prices, outrageous taxes, rising mortgage interest rates and expensive insurance premiums. As a seller, you control only one of these items.
Conclusion? If you go back to Economics 101 you will remember that more inventory combined with fewer buyers results in lower prices. If I were a seller now, I'd be ready to look at lower than expected offers and more demanding terms from buyers. Also, if I were a seller, I'd start selecting my real estate agent based on how good his marketing plan was and not on who had the lowest commission rate. A low commission doesn't mean anything if the real estate agent can't find you a ready, willing and able buyer. To do that in this market requires superior marketing -- discount commission places don't offer much marketing savvy, that's why they're discounters.
Condominium Listings. Ugh! At the end of May, 2006 there were 5,804 condos for sale in Pinellas County. At the end of May last year there were only 1,453 condos for sale in the MLS. If you're a condo shopper, you have a huge selection from which to choose. If you're a condo seller, you've got competition like you wouldn't believe -- especially if you're trying to sell an older unit with so many new units now available in Pinellas. I suspect that even remodeled older units are going to be difficult to sell in this market.
Condominium Sales. Only 481 condo/townhome units were sold in May 2006, and that includes sales in all the new developments that are just now coming online in the downtown St. Petersburg area and along the Gulf beaches. For condo sales, it was the worst May in five years! But here's the odd statistic -- the median price for condos in May was $183,900 which is up from the median of $157,200 of May 2005. It appears that condo prices are remaining strong, but I think that statistic may be misleading. We have to keep in mind that many of the new condos and townhomes are very expensive -- some selling in the millions. With a small number of sales in the condo category, it does not take many sales of these expensive condos and townhomes to skew the median price upward. I'd like to see prices for condos and townhomes separated into those properties that are new versus those that are older. My bet is that the older units are selling for a much lower median price, and that the median price of older units is dropping each month. Of course, I have no way to prove it.
Condo Conclusion? It's a great time to be a condo/townhome buyer. You should be able to pretty much write you're own ticket, I think. If you a seller of an older unit, there does not seem to be as much demand and you're going to have to do some very heavy-duty marketing and negotiating to find a buyer willing to pay you're price. Now's the time to be patient, bide your time and hedge your bets. Look at every offer seriously and see what can be negotiated with the buyer.
Those of you who read this blog regularly know that I have hesitated on saying we are in a buyer's market. Well, I guess that I have to come out and admit it, yes, it's now a buyer's market. If you're a buyer, your time has come and things might even start looking better for you later this summer if mortgage interest rates stay reasonable.
If you're a seller, you need to really zero-in on three key issues: price, terms and marketing. Be flexible on your price, negotiate on terms to make the deal close smoothly, and find a top-notch real estate agent who delivers a full service marketing plan designed to find you a qualified buyer. Without the in-depth marketing, your property will sit unsold in this buyer's market. You can't "cheap" your way through a real estate transaction today. Find a real estate agent who know his stuff and pay the full commission. It's your best option.
Wish I had better news folks, but that's the way it is.
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