January Sales Report Is In. Let's Blame Everything On El Nino.
I think the cold, blustery, rainy weather kept January from being a better month for real estate sales. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
The single family home absorption rate (AR) took a big hit in January as sales plummeted. The AR for January 2010 dropped to 6.8 percent compared to December's 9.9 percent figure. That is a pretty significant decrease in inventory turn for a 30-day period. It has to be El Nino.
Same thing for condos ... it's all El Nino's fault. Condo AR dropped from 8.0 percent in December to a miserable 5.7 percent in January. Blame it on the rain.
Still, if we were to compare this January to past Januaries, we're starting the year off much better than before. Here's an example. The single family AR for January 2007 was 4.2 percent; for January 2008 it was 3.8 percent; for January 2009 it was 4.9 percent. At 6.8 percent, we're actually starting the year off pretty good and that could be a sign of good things to come.
Same for condos. From 2007 through 2009, the condo AR was 2.8 percent, 2.9 percent, and 2.8 percent. Heck, last month's 5.7 percent is a huge improvement, wouldn't you say?
Let's take a look at hard numbers ...
Single Family Homes
The number of single family homes listed in the MLS increased in January as compared to December. In December, there were 5,928 single family listings in the MLS. In January, that number had climbed to 6,399. Quite a jump.
Single family homes sales dropped in January compared to December. In December there were 586 homes sold. In January, only 438. Quite a slowdown and that explains the drop in AR.
Median home prices, oddly enough, increased when you compare January 2009 to January 2010. The January 2009 median was at $124,500 while this past month it stood at $130,100. Maybe that increase in price is why fewer houses sold. Hard to say.
Condominiums
Wow, big jump in condo listings in the last month. In December there were 5,180 listed condos in the MLS for Pinellas County. In January, that number swelled to 5,503. Lots of new condo listings.
Condo sales, as the AR indicates, took a plunge. In December, 413 condos were sold and I thought condo sales had turned for the better. I was wrong. In January only 312 condos were sold -- and this is supposed to be the best part of the season for condo sales.
Unlike single family homes, the median price for condos also dropped comparing January 2009 to January 2010. In January 2009, the median price was $125,000. In January of this year it was only $113,000.
So, all in all, I'd say January was not a bad month, just not a very good month. But we are starting off the year in better shape than we have in any of the past three years, and I think that's a very good omen for future real estate sales in 2010. If everybody plans their work and works their plan, we just might get someplace good in the next few months. And let's keep in mind that an El Nino won't last forever.
Happy Selling Everybody!
-30-
The single family home absorption rate (AR) took a big hit in January as sales plummeted. The AR for January 2010 dropped to 6.8 percent compared to December's 9.9 percent figure. That is a pretty significant decrease in inventory turn for a 30-day period. It has to be El Nino.
Same thing for condos ... it's all El Nino's fault. Condo AR dropped from 8.0 percent in December to a miserable 5.7 percent in January. Blame it on the rain.
Still, if we were to compare this January to past Januaries, we're starting the year off much better than before. Here's an example. The single family AR for January 2007 was 4.2 percent; for January 2008 it was 3.8 percent; for January 2009 it was 4.9 percent. At 6.8 percent, we're actually starting the year off pretty good and that could be a sign of good things to come.
Same for condos. From 2007 through 2009, the condo AR was 2.8 percent, 2.9 percent, and 2.8 percent. Heck, last month's 5.7 percent is a huge improvement, wouldn't you say?
Let's take a look at hard numbers ...
Single Family Homes
The number of single family homes listed in the MLS increased in January as compared to December. In December, there were 5,928 single family listings in the MLS. In January, that number had climbed to 6,399. Quite a jump.
Single family homes sales dropped in January compared to December. In December there were 586 homes sold. In January, only 438. Quite a slowdown and that explains the drop in AR.
Median home prices, oddly enough, increased when you compare January 2009 to January 2010. The January 2009 median was at $124,500 while this past month it stood at $130,100. Maybe that increase in price is why fewer houses sold. Hard to say.
Condominiums
Wow, big jump in condo listings in the last month. In December there were 5,180 listed condos in the MLS for Pinellas County. In January, that number swelled to 5,503. Lots of new condo listings.
Condo sales, as the AR indicates, took a plunge. In December, 413 condos were sold and I thought condo sales had turned for the better. I was wrong. In January only 312 condos were sold -- and this is supposed to be the best part of the season for condo sales.
Unlike single family homes, the median price for condos also dropped comparing January 2009 to January 2010. In January 2009, the median price was $125,000. In January of this year it was only $113,000.
So, all in all, I'd say January was not a bad month, just not a very good month. But we are starting off the year in better shape than we have in any of the past three years, and I think that's a very good omen for future real estate sales in 2010. If everybody plans their work and works their plan, we just might get someplace good in the next few months. And let's keep in mind that an El Nino won't last forever.
Happy Selling Everybody!
-30-
posted by Terry Ward at 12:11 PM
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