Locally, Home Sales Continue To Fall

Dadgumit! I was hoping the St. Pete Times would ignore these latest statistics on home sales, but they published them anyway. I guess it is news. And they are a newspaper.

It just seems like every time we read news about bad activity in the local real estate market it gives buyers a reason to wait for even lower prices, and gives sellers a reason not to list until the market starts to improve. That's a vicious circle.

I've had this info in my hip pocket for a couple of days, but here's the news and it ain't happy:

• In Tampa Bay, home sales dropped 25-percent compared to October 2009.
• In Tampa Bay, the median sales price dropped another 2-percent compared to October 2009. It now stands at a lowly $137,900 -- great if you're a buyer!
• Throughout Florida, homes sales fell 21-percent compared to October 2009.
• Throughout Florida, the median price retreated another 3-percent to only $136,600.

In the thirty days from September to October 2009, home sales across Florida dropped 12-percent. Condo sales for the same thirty days fell 9-percent.

How come?

Three reasons:

1. Employment, or the lack thereof. People just don't buy real estate when they don't have a steady job, are worried that their job may disappear, or feel uncertain about the continuance of their company.
2. Tax credits. The first time home buyer tax credit program disappeared several months ago. Those credits acted as a stimulus and a lot of people bought earlier than they might have. Those credits are now gone and with them the impetus to purchase real estate.
3. Credit. Availability of credit is the life-blood of the real estate industry. Simply stated, it's hard to get a mortgage today unless the stars line-up perfectly for you. There just does not seem to be enough available credit, especially for those who may have a glitch or two in their credit history.

Here's what is really discouraging. A fellow named Sean Snaith, an economist over at the University of Central Florida, told the St. Pete Times that he did not think the real estate situation was going to improve until the employment and credit pictures improve. If he's right, this kind of real estate market could be with us for quite a long time -- even longer than previously anticiapted based on the slow pace of economic recovery and job growth in this country and Florida.

So, if I was a buyer, I'd buy now. Those median prices indicate that prices are very low, and that means there are a lot of great deals in the marketplace today if you can get the mortgage.

If is was a seller, I'd sell now. If prices continue to fall, every day that passes your house is worth less. Sell it now for what you can. The longer you wait, the less you'll probably get.

Ah well ... Happy Thanksgiving everybody!

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