Lawrence Yun Says Tampa Bay Housing Recovery Is A Year Behind Nation
Lawrence Yun is a genuine big shot. No, I mean it. Yun is the real deal. He is the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and when Yun speaks people listen -- or they had better.
Yesterday, Yun spoke to a group of real estate agents at the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors. Somehow, my invitation to this engagement must have gotten lost in the mail. Your's too?
Well, here's what Yun said. Yun told the assemblage that the Tampa Bay area's real estate recovery is running about a year behind such cities as Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas. He pointed out that right now, we have enjoyed a 14.2% jump in real estate sales volume compared to the same time last year, and that we now have a housing inventory of 6.2 months which is down from the 20 months of housing inventory that we had a couple of years ago. When you have about a 6-month supply of homes in inventory you have a market that is pretty much stable.
Sellers, however, will not be entirely happy with Mr. Yun's additional comments. Despite the increase in volume, Yun pointed out that prices here continue to slide. In fact, he said that prices in Tampa Bay have fallen an additional 7% in the last year. So, that typical $200,000 house that you bought last year is probably worth about $186,000 now.
Yun said that Florida's real estate recovery should begin picking up. He stressed the fact that even though Florida's economy was pretty uninspiring, it was still Florida. He predicted that retiring baby boomers will return in the next few years to drive sales volume and prices upward as people seek warmer winters in the sunshine state.
There is one fly in Yun's prediction, however, and it looms large in the recovery picture.
The federal government is apparently considering "an initiative" which will require borrowers to pay more cash up front when obtaining the best mortgages and interest rates.
Borrowers who don't meet certain income-to-debt ratios might be required to make a full 20% down payment. This initiative, aimed at helping the country avoid another foreclosure crises, could be finalized in about a year.
If this initiative becomes law, some 60% of all potential real estate buyers would be disqualified from obtaining a mortgage with the best and lowest interest rates. This will make monthly mortgage payments higher and will likely slow down the real estate recovery.
Anyway, now you know what Lawrence Yun was doing in town yesterday.
-30-
Yesterday, Yun spoke to a group of real estate agents at the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors. Somehow, my invitation to this engagement must have gotten lost in the mail. Your's too?
Well, here's what Yun said. Yun told the assemblage that the Tampa Bay area's real estate recovery is running about a year behind such cities as Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas. He pointed out that right now, we have enjoyed a 14.2% jump in real estate sales volume compared to the same time last year, and that we now have a housing inventory of 6.2 months which is down from the 20 months of housing inventory that we had a couple of years ago. When you have about a 6-month supply of homes in inventory you have a market that is pretty much stable.
Sellers, however, will not be entirely happy with Mr. Yun's additional comments. Despite the increase in volume, Yun pointed out that prices here continue to slide. In fact, he said that prices in Tampa Bay have fallen an additional 7% in the last year. So, that typical $200,000 house that you bought last year is probably worth about $186,000 now.
Yun said that Florida's real estate recovery should begin picking up. He stressed the fact that even though Florida's economy was pretty uninspiring, it was still Florida. He predicted that retiring baby boomers will return in the next few years to drive sales volume and prices upward as people seek warmer winters in the sunshine state.
There is one fly in Yun's prediction, however, and it looms large in the recovery picture.
The federal government is apparently considering "an initiative" which will require borrowers to pay more cash up front when obtaining the best mortgages and interest rates.
Borrowers who don't meet certain income-to-debt ratios might be required to make a full 20% down payment. This initiative, aimed at helping the country avoid another foreclosure crises, could be finalized in about a year.
If this initiative becomes law, some 60% of all potential real estate buyers would be disqualified from obtaining a mortgage with the best and lowest interest rates. This will make monthly mortgage payments higher and will likely slow down the real estate recovery.
Anyway, now you know what Lawrence Yun was doing in town yesterday.
-30-
posted by Terry Ward at 4:51 AM
2 Comments:
This comment has been removed by the author.
Very Nice article, Terry! Well written and it sure puts things in perspective. And, No, I didn't get my invitation either. Hurumph!
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