Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Take Two Norco Before Reading June Sales Report

When I came home from the hospital following some recent surgery, they gave me a prescription of Norco for the pain.

If you're going to read the sales report for June that follows, I urge you to take some pain medication. This is going to hurt.

As usual, let's first look at the absorption rate for June. Those of you who read this blog regularly already know that the absorption rate is the inventory turn. It is determined by dividing the number of units sold in the month by the total number of listings in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS).

The absorption rate for single family homes for June was 10.5%. That's the lowest this year and the worst for any month since January, 2003 when the rate was 14.4%. By comparison, in June 2005 the absorption rate for single family homes was 59.2%. Quite a drop in one year. Pretty painful, eh?

Well, since we're talking about pain, let's talk about condos. The absorption rate for condos in June 2006 was an agonizing 6.2%. Frankly, that's the worst I've ever seen it. In June 2005 it was a healthy 53.6%.

Walk to the medicine cabinet now and take those two pain pills.

The temperature's rising on single family listings. In June there were 9,153 single family homes on the market. By comparison, in June of 2005 there were only 2,552. If you are trying to sell your house now, you have over three times as much competition today as you did a year ago. Complicating this is the fact that it appears you have fewer buyers (see below). I recommend a double dose of good marketing. It's you're only hope.

Single family sales are fluctuating. There were 959 single family homes sold in June. That's off some from May, but it shows that there are still some buyers out there -- but not nearly as many as there were a year ago. In June 2005 there were 1,461 homes sold. So, if there are buyers out there, how do you find them? That double-dose of marketing I just prescribed is your best hope.

Condos are suffering. I don't know if it's overbuilding or profit-taking or flipping or what, but the condo market is sick. In June there were 5,981 condos on the market as compared to 1,327 in June of 2005. If you bought a condo in the last couple of years and think you can sell it fast and for a big profit today, I'd think again my friend. You may have bought your condo or townhome at the top of the market. Today's condo buyer has his pick of properties and is in a great position to drive a hard bargain. When they say "buyer's market", today's condo market is what they're talking about. As a seller, your only hope may be surgery -- cut your losses and run.

Condo sales have a really weak pulse. Only 372 condos were sold in June 2006. 711 were sold in June 2005. So, the market for condo sales seems to be about half of what it once was. Maybe it's just the season -- condo sales often go flat in the summer. Then again, maybe not. At any rate, condo and townhome sales are in the intensive care unit.

So, now that you've got the news, how are you feeling? Not so hot, eh. That Norco sounds pretty good, doesn't it? But look, let's be optimistic. The real estate market has virtually no place to go but up. It may take some time, so you may have to show some patience. But the patient will improve. I promise. I've seen these cycles before. We'll get through this and feel better soon.

Oh, by the way ... don't forget to visit my website, www.thestpeterealestatesite.com.


-30-

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home