December Sales Report -- Did You Feel The Earth Vibrate In Excitement?
America's greatest broadcast journalist, the late Edward R. Murrow, might have reported it this way ...
"Attention mister and missus America and all ships at sea. Did you feel the earth move at the end of December? Did you notice rivers suddenly reversing their courses? Did you see the sun rise in the west and set in the east? Do not be alarmed. These and other uncommon events were caused by last month's slight uptick in the real estate market in Pinellas County, Florida."
The absprption rate tells the tale pretty well. For single family homes, the absorption rate increased from 5.7% in November to 6.8% in December, an increase in inventory turn of 1.1%. For condos, the improvement was much more slight. The absorption rate incrased from 4.0% in November to 4.1% in December, an increase of just one-tenth of a percentage point -- but hey, it went up!
These improved absorption rates do not necessarily mean the market bottomed out in November and began the long road back to "normalcy" in December. December's absorption rates still make it the second worst month of the year and it may have been that November was so bad that the market had no place to go but up in December. Only time will tell on that issue. I'm just pleased to finally, after all these months, bring readers of this blog some good news. As Mary Potter of Tourtelot Brothers observed some days before the official figures were made available, "The wheel turned, if ever so slightly." Nice call, Mary.
So, what does this improved absorption rate really reflect? Let's do the numbers.
Single Family Homes. The number of single family homes listed in the Pinellas MLS system decreased from 10,262 in November to 9,876 in December. The number of single family homes sold increased from 586 in November to 672 in December. So, there are fewer homes on the market today than there were a month ago. Why? Well, some of it represents an increase in sales activity which is what we want to see. To be honest, some of it is probably caused by frustrated sellers who have lost patience with the market and have simply removed their property from the MLS system. Either way, the figures show that sales did indeed improve in December and that buyers now have fewer homes from which to select.
Condominium Sales. Condo sales were pretty much stagnant during December and condos continue to lag in the overall market. There were 6,497 condos listed during November, and at the end of December there were 6,444. There were 263 condos sold in November, and 264 sold during December. Those figures are virtually unchanged. Frankly, the condo market is really struggling. It's probably overbuilt and new ones seem to be popping up all the time. It's a great time to be a condo buyer; you can probably pretty much write your own ticket and a motivated seller will probably stamp it "accepted".
Median Prices. It's been an interesting twelve months from a median price viewpoint. High inventory and slow sales activity should mean that prices are dropping. That's Economics 101. That has happened to a certain extent, but sellers seem to be trying their best to keep prices higher than I expected. I guess it's part of that "soft landing" that economists have predicted for the nation's real estate industry. Anyway, the median price for a single family home in Pinellas fell from $268,000 at the start of the year to $212,500 in December, a drop of 20.7% if my math is right. For condos, the median fell from $177,500 to $156,000 at year's end, a drop of 12.1%. A lot of good real estate agents and appraisers who I know are predicting that prices will continue to fall at about the same rate into the early part of 2008. Of course, we'll have to wait and see if they are right.
America's other great broadcast journalist, Walter Cronkite, might summarize it this way: "What kind of year was it? A year like all years, filled with those events that alter and illuminate our time ... and you were there."
Well, good night from my little newsroom in St. Petersburg.
For more information on real estate in Pinellas County, Florida, please visit my website at www.TheStPeteRealEstateSite.com.
"Attention mister and missus America and all ships at sea. Did you feel the earth move at the end of December? Did you notice rivers suddenly reversing their courses? Did you see the sun rise in the west and set in the east? Do not be alarmed. These and other uncommon events were caused by last month's slight uptick in the real estate market in Pinellas County, Florida."
The absprption rate tells the tale pretty well. For single family homes, the absorption rate increased from 5.7% in November to 6.8% in December, an increase in inventory turn of 1.1%. For condos, the improvement was much more slight. The absorption rate incrased from 4.0% in November to 4.1% in December, an increase of just one-tenth of a percentage point -- but hey, it went up!
These improved absorption rates do not necessarily mean the market bottomed out in November and began the long road back to "normalcy" in December. December's absorption rates still make it the second worst month of the year and it may have been that November was so bad that the market had no place to go but up in December. Only time will tell on that issue. I'm just pleased to finally, after all these months, bring readers of this blog some good news. As Mary Potter of Tourtelot Brothers observed some days before the official figures were made available, "The wheel turned, if ever so slightly." Nice call, Mary.
So, what does this improved absorption rate really reflect? Let's do the numbers.
Single Family Homes. The number of single family homes listed in the Pinellas MLS system decreased from 10,262 in November to 9,876 in December. The number of single family homes sold increased from 586 in November to 672 in December. So, there are fewer homes on the market today than there were a month ago. Why? Well, some of it represents an increase in sales activity which is what we want to see. To be honest, some of it is probably caused by frustrated sellers who have lost patience with the market and have simply removed their property from the MLS system. Either way, the figures show that sales did indeed improve in December and that buyers now have fewer homes from which to select.
Condominium Sales. Condo sales were pretty much stagnant during December and condos continue to lag in the overall market. There were 6,497 condos listed during November, and at the end of December there were 6,444. There were 263 condos sold in November, and 264 sold during December. Those figures are virtually unchanged. Frankly, the condo market is really struggling. It's probably overbuilt and new ones seem to be popping up all the time. It's a great time to be a condo buyer; you can probably pretty much write your own ticket and a motivated seller will probably stamp it "accepted".
Median Prices. It's been an interesting twelve months from a median price viewpoint. High inventory and slow sales activity should mean that prices are dropping. That's Economics 101. That has happened to a certain extent, but sellers seem to be trying their best to keep prices higher than I expected. I guess it's part of that "soft landing" that economists have predicted for the nation's real estate industry. Anyway, the median price for a single family home in Pinellas fell from $268,000 at the start of the year to $212,500 in December, a drop of 20.7% if my math is right. For condos, the median fell from $177,500 to $156,000 at year's end, a drop of 12.1%. A lot of good real estate agents and appraisers who I know are predicting that prices will continue to fall at about the same rate into the early part of 2008. Of course, we'll have to wait and see if they are right.
America's other great broadcast journalist, Walter Cronkite, might summarize it this way: "What kind of year was it? A year like all years, filled with those events that alter and illuminate our time ... and you were there."
Well, good night from my little newsroom in St. Petersburg.
For more information on real estate in Pinellas County, Florida, please visit my website at www.TheStPeteRealEstateSite.com.
-30-
posted by Terry Ward at 3:12 AM
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