Monday, April 09, 2007

March Sales Show Improvement

March sales figures for Pinellas County residential real estate show some improvement, although they are not really great. More importantly the sales figures for March show a month-by-month improvement in real estate sales for the first quarter of 2007. Let's take a look and see what's happening.

We will begin as always with the Absorption Rate (AR). The Absorption Rate is the inventory turn. It is determined by dividing the number of units sold during the month by the total number of listings in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS).

For single family homes, the March AR was 6.1 percent. Now, that's not really great but the figure is causing me to be much more positive about residential sales. The AR has moved up every month this year. In January it was 4.2, in February it was 5.4. So, it's improving by roughly 1 percent each month. Folks, that's a good sign.

How 'bout condos? Same thing, just on a smaller scale. The condo AR has moved up every month in the first quarter of 2007, from 2.8 in January to 3.5 in February, and now it's at 4.2 percent in March. Now, that's not a whole lot of sales, but at least it's moving in the proper direction.

At the end of March there were a total of 18,504 properties listed in the MLS. Listings continue to climb, and I suspect that there are many hidden listings out there. I say "hidden" because I believe there are a lot of people who have taken their properties off the market, or are waiting to put their house on the market until times get better or until they feel the market moves toward more of a seller's market.

For single family homes, there were 11,226 properties in the MLS during March. In February there were 11,003. Sales of single family homes picked up a bit in March. There were 687 single family homes sold, as compared to 594 in February. Since January saw only 448 single family sales, you can easily see that each month has represened an improvement in the gross number of sales, and that should be good news to sellers and to real estate agents in Pinellas County.

Condo listings stayed about the same in March as they were in February. At the end of March the MLS reported 7,278 condos for sale, while in February the number was 7,239. There were 7,043 on the market at the end of January, so condo listings have remained pretty flat for the first quarter of 2007. Sales, unfortunately, have also remained sluggish for condos. Only 309 condos were sold in March as compared to 254 sales in February and 196 in January. But here's the good thing: sales have gone up every month for condos for 2007 -- you gotta like that news!

So, what about pricing? Median prices seem to be pretty stable for single family homes. The median was an even $200,000 for March while it was at $198,000 for February. The median price for condos, however, continues to drop. It went down to $175,000 for March and was at $185,000 in February. The median price for condos has dropped every month this year.

So, does this good news constitute a recovery of the real estate market in Pinellas County? Who knows. But it does show that things might be starting to move in the right direction. We'll know more in a couple of months. I think a full recovery really depends on actions regarding property taxes and insurance, and so far progress on those two fronts seem sluggish. Keep your fingers crossed.

If you'd like more information about real estate matters in Pinellas County, visit my website at www.TheStPeteRealEstateSite.com.

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