Mixed Signals Make Predictions Impossible

Like all real estate agents, I'm often asked what I think is going on with real estate now. I get questions like "when is real estate going to come back to normal?" and "what's wrong with real estate?"

If I actually had the answer to those kinds of questions I'd bottle it and make a fortune.

So, why don't I know the answer? Simple really. I'm just a real estate agent. I get my information about the market from other agents, from the National Association of Realtors, the Florida Associaton of Realtors, the Pinellas Realtor Organization, the St. Petersburg Times and other media sources, and various newsletters and business magazines.

Those sources vary on their opinions as to what's going on in real estate. For example, here is what I found out this morning ...

• Hank Fishkind, the famous economist, says that other economists' views of the real estate industry in Florida are pretty much wrong, and that the state's housing market hit bottom months ago and is now on a rebound except for the condo market in Miami.
• Right under that story about Fishkind was an article stating that new home sales fell in June by the largest amount in five months as the housing industry struggles with its largest downturn in 16 years.
• The St. Pete Times reported on page 1-A that the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 311.5 points on July 26th based on fears that the housing slump will hurt the overall economy.
• The Times also ran an article, page 1-A, that pointed out that although property values seem to be falling, property taxes will likely continue to be even higher next year because lawmakers are taking advantage of what appear to be loopholes in the tax laws that allow them to raise taxes on real estate despite falling values.

I found all these stories before 7:00 AM on July 27th. Clearly, they are pretty conflicting for someone who's looking for an answer to "what's wrong" with real estate. Is Fishkind right? Or will the worst downturn in 16 years continue to drive down the overall economy while taxes continue to rise?

Next time somebody asks me one of those questions that requires me to foretell the future, I'm going to reply that my sources are a little confused, my crystal ball is dark on the matter, and that the tea leaves are wilted when it comes to real estate.

For more information on real estate in the Tampa Bay area, visit my website at http://www.thestpeterealestatesite.com/.

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