Hear Ye, Hear Ye: Home Sales To Increase in '08

Hank Fishkind, the head of a well-respected economics and financial consulting firm in Orlando, has stated that sales of existing homes likely bottomed out in late 2007 in Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando Counties. For Hillsborough County, Fishkind doesn't see that area hitting bottom until sometime in 2008.

Fishkind released his forecast on Monday (January 7th). Essentially, here are his predictions ...

• Single family home sales will increase by about 2,500 units in Pinellas, 1,000 units in Pasco, and 700 units in Hernando.
• Single family home sales will decrease by about 1,500 units in Hillsborough County.
• Single family home prices will remain flat for at least another two years.

Fishkind prepared the report for Attorney's Title Insurance Fund, which is one of the largest title insurance companies in Florida.

Readers of this blog site know that I am not a big fan of real estate gurus or real estate predictions. Fishkind is a man with a famous name and I respect his work, but frankly I'd be surprised if these predictions prove true for 2008. Here's why.

The real estate market for single family homes is stagnant and has been so for at least 18 months. Nothing much will happen to change that stagnation until buyers start making offers on property and stimulate the market. Offers from buyers are lacking right now, and without offers the market can not change and sales will not increase. As a result of this stagnation, prices are dropping and we are in the most price-sensitive market I have ever seen. There is now talk nationally in the media about a recession in 2008 and that will not be good news for the world of real estate if the overall economy starts to suffer. Foreclosures are rampant, short sales are becoming more common. What few buyers there are have been forcing lower prices on sellers. Mortgages are becoming more difficult to obtain even for people with solid credit. Insurance remains problematical. Taxes will continue to be a problem regardless of the outcome of the election later in January. How Fishkind sees an increase in sales volume in 2008 with all these stars out of alignment is beyond me.

In all candor, I can't make any predictions about sales volume in 2008 because I don't have access to that kind of data. I do see prices continuing to drop due to seller desperation and frustration. I think that the buyer's market will continue in 2008 and that will mean lower prices, not flat prices. In other words, I kinda disagree with Fishkind. But hey, I'm just a real estate agent and Fishkind's an economist. Maybe he knows something I don't.

For more information about real estate in Pinellas County, visit my website at http://www.thestpeterealestatesite.com/.

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