Zillow Report: Home Values Continue To Drop Locally
I've been talking to quite a few home sellers and "would-be" home sellers and "used-to-be" home sellers lately who are convinced that home prices in the Tampa Bay area are going up.
They believe that homes are actually increasing in value or are about to turn and make a big upward run like they did in 2004 - 2006. Yes, according to these people, good times are just around the corner.
I don't know where these folks are getting their information. All the figures I see show that home prices are flat if not retreating. Median prices are falling, just check the MLS research. Locally, we have unemployment of 10 to 11 percent depending on which month's figures you want to believe, and unemployed people don't buy real estate. We have low consumer confidence according to the reports coming out of the University of Florida. It's really hard to get a mortgage these days, even for people with good credit scores! We have way too much inventory to sell in the MLS system. And we have all these distress properties -- short sales, foreclosures, bank owned properties -- that drive prices down because they are being sold at fire sale prices. We even have the St. Pete Times running stories about how home prices are falling and if you want to sell your property you have to price it like it's yesterday's newspaper.
But for some reason I've been running into people who think prices are headed upward. Perhaps they are confusing real estate prices with the Dow Jones Industrial Average which is doing a lot better (for now at least).
Anyway, here's the latest bit of info on home prices in Tampa Bay: According to Zillow, home prices in the Tampa Bay area fell another 2.2 percent between June 30 and September 30 of this year.
So, if you are trying to sell a house that was legitimately priced at $300,000 in September, today it's most likely worth $293,400 according to the Zillow pricing averages. In effect, Zillow says you sustained a loss of $6,600 during the last 90 days. With each passing month that your house remains unsold, you are going to lose money in today's market. If you are a seller with an overpriced listing, time is not on your side. With each passing month the market moves farther and farther away from you and your overpriced listing becomes less and less attractive to buyers.
Now, Zillow is quick to point out that some areas did better than others. Cheval, Lutz, Odessa and Keystone in semi rural northern Hillsborough County; Indian Rocks and Feather Sound in Pinellas County; and Port Richey in Pasco County were among a few areas that saw prices go up a little.
The places with the biggest losses were Brooksville, Spring Hill, Dade City and Ruskin. Well, those areas saw huge price jumps during the boom period of 2004-2006 as I recall, so I guess turnabout is fair play.
To make a long story short, Zillow said that only 11 of Tampa Bay's 110 neighborhoods in their survey saw property value increases. The rest, I surmise, either saw property values drop or stay flat for the three months of the survey.
Here's the point of all this. If you are a seller who seriously wants to dispose of a property, you absolutely have to get out of your dream world and start pricing property the way the market is today. If you live in one of the 11 areas where Zillow says prices went up a little, well, lucky for you. But for the rest of us, keep in mind that your house probably lost value in the last three months.
If you haven't already done so, it's now time to adjust your price downward. If you've already made a price adjustment, maybe it's time to do it again. That's just the way the markets are running right now and there is no end in sight -- despite what some people are saying. Of course, these people also believe that Frank, Dino and Sammy are performing live in Las Vegas this weekend.
Happy Selling!
They believe that homes are actually increasing in value or are about to turn and make a big upward run like they did in 2004 - 2006. Yes, according to these people, good times are just around the corner.
I don't know where these folks are getting their information. All the figures I see show that home prices are flat if not retreating. Median prices are falling, just check the MLS research. Locally, we have unemployment of 10 to 11 percent depending on which month's figures you want to believe, and unemployed people don't buy real estate. We have low consumer confidence according to the reports coming out of the University of Florida. It's really hard to get a mortgage these days, even for people with good credit scores! We have way too much inventory to sell in the MLS system. And we have all these distress properties -- short sales, foreclosures, bank owned properties -- that drive prices down because they are being sold at fire sale prices. We even have the St. Pete Times running stories about how home prices are falling and if you want to sell your property you have to price it like it's yesterday's newspaper.
But for some reason I've been running into people who think prices are headed upward. Perhaps they are confusing real estate prices with the Dow Jones Industrial Average which is doing a lot better (for now at least).
Anyway, here's the latest bit of info on home prices in Tampa Bay: According to Zillow, home prices in the Tampa Bay area fell another 2.2 percent between June 30 and September 30 of this year.
So, if you are trying to sell a house that was legitimately priced at $300,000 in September, today it's most likely worth $293,400 according to the Zillow pricing averages. In effect, Zillow says you sustained a loss of $6,600 during the last 90 days. With each passing month that your house remains unsold, you are going to lose money in today's market. If you are a seller with an overpriced listing, time is not on your side. With each passing month the market moves farther and farther away from you and your overpriced listing becomes less and less attractive to buyers.
Now, Zillow is quick to point out that some areas did better than others. Cheval, Lutz, Odessa and Keystone in semi rural northern Hillsborough County; Indian Rocks and Feather Sound in Pinellas County; and Port Richey in Pasco County were among a few areas that saw prices go up a little.
The places with the biggest losses were Brooksville, Spring Hill, Dade City and Ruskin. Well, those areas saw huge price jumps during the boom period of 2004-2006 as I recall, so I guess turnabout is fair play.
To make a long story short, Zillow said that only 11 of Tampa Bay's 110 neighborhoods in their survey saw property value increases. The rest, I surmise, either saw property values drop or stay flat for the three months of the survey.
Here's the point of all this. If you are a seller who seriously wants to dispose of a property, you absolutely have to get out of your dream world and start pricing property the way the market is today. If you live in one of the 11 areas where Zillow says prices went up a little, well, lucky for you. But for the rest of us, keep in mind that your house probably lost value in the last three months.
If you haven't already done so, it's now time to adjust your price downward. If you've already made a price adjustment, maybe it's time to do it again. That's just the way the markets are running right now and there is no end in sight -- despite what some people are saying. Of course, these people also believe that Frank, Dino and Sammy are performing live in Las Vegas this weekend.
Happy Selling!
-30-
posted by Terry Ward at 3:59 AM
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