Sunday, February 10, 2008

2008 Starting Out On A Sour Note

I've been hearing a lot of real estate pundits singing a happier tune lately. The song they're singing is that real estate sales will pick up in 2008.

Well, 2008 seems to be getting off on a sour note. At least that's what the numbers show.

January was a real disaster in Pinellas County.

The Abosorption Rate (AR), which is determined by dividing the number of units sold by the total number of units in the Multiple Listing Service, was just terrible.

For January, the AR for single family homes fell to 3.8%. In December it was at 5.1%. I have information on AR's going back several years, and January 2008 sets a record for the worst inventory turn.

The AR for condominiums was unreal! For January it was 2.9%. In December the AR stood at 3.4%. January 2008's AR was the worst since January 2007 when it fell to 2.8%.

Pinellas Single Family Home Sales

If you're trying to sell a single family home in Pinellas County, things are not looking up for you. MLS is reporting that there are 8,848 properties on the market but during the entire month of January only 333 were sold. As far as I can tell, that dismal record of performance is the worst on record. I'm not saying it is the all-time worst but it is the worst I can find in the current charts and graphs posted by MLS for Pinellas County.

Just so you'll know, the median selling price fell in January. In December it was $185,000. At the end of January 2008 it was $177,000. Please remember, that is the median selling price, not the average.

Pinellas Condominiums

Doesn't anybody want condos anymore? Condos are a great lifestyle for both retired people and busy, on-the-go executives. I guess they may have lost their appeal. Of the 8,145 condos on the market in Pinellas County during January, only 237 were sold. That's the worst selling performance since January 2007 when only 196 condos were placed in the sold category.

The median selling price for condos also dropped in January as compared to December. January 2008 saw a median price of $168,000 as compared to December's $176,000.

I did see one good thing with condos in January. There was a bit of an uptick in sales for high-end units. Of the total sales for January, 6.8% of those sold were priced at $900,000 or more. That's an improvement over past months where luxury unit sales have been real flat.

Now, I want to tell you the honest to goodness truth here. Of late, I've been seeing the phones ringing a lot more in our offices. I've been getting more calls from potential buyers. Some of the buyer brokers I know have been getting busier and actually taking people out to look at property. I'm seeing more activity in the marketplace.

The question is, is this the beginning of a recovery or just a seasonal adjustment? I don't know. Only time will tell. I do, however, think more sellers have gotten the message about brining their asking prices down. And I think more potential buyers have gotten the message that this is a great time to buy.

Overall, January hit kind of a sour note. But maybe things are starting to sound a little better.

So, should we strike up the band? Probably not. But we might want to start tuning our instruments.

For more information on real estate in the Tampa Bay area, visit my website at http://www.thestpeterealestatesite.com/.

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