October Was S-L-O-W
Point your finger at Wall Street. Point your finger at Fannie and Freddie. Point your finger at news of a pending recession. Point your finger at whatever you want, but October was a slower than average month for real estate in Pinellas County.
We begin, as usual, with a look at the Absorption Rate (AR). The AR is the inventory turn and it is determined by dividing the number of units sold in the month by the total number of units in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS).
The AR for single family homes fell in October to 6.0 percent; in September it was at 6.2 percent. That's not much of a drop, I grant you, but it is a drop nonetheless. For condominiums, the AR remained the same in October as it was in September at 3.6 percent. That AR is not so good for condo sellers, because it looks like the market is both slow and flat for condos.
Single Family Homes
In October, there were 8,691 single family homes listed for sale in the MLS system. In September there were 8,642. So, the number of homes on the market increased a bit in the last month.
Of those homes in the MLS during October, only 523 were sold. That's down a little from September's sales figure of 536 units sold.
The median price for a single family home fell to $150,000 in Pinellas County. Just a year ago in October of 2007, the median stood at $212,000. So, we've seen a 29.2 percent drop in the median price. The average selling price, reported as the "mean" price in the MLS data, was at $199,700 for October 2008; it was at $286,400 for October 2007. That is a drop in average selling price of 30.3 percent. That's good news for buyers, but disappointing news for sellers.
Condominiums
In October, the MLS reported 7,112 condos for sale in Pinellas County. That's up a little from the 7,061 for sale in September.
Condo sales remained at about the same level. In October there were 255 condos sold in the County, as compared to 251 sold in September. Not much activity, is it?
The median price for condos in Pinellas County fell to $137,000 in October of 2008. In October of 2007 it was at $180,000. That's a drop in median of 24.2 percent. The mean or average price in October 2008 was $227,300 as compared to October 2007 of $318,000. That's a drop in average price of 28.5 percent. Again, good news for buyers, bad news for sellers.
If you're like me, you're seeing these prices taking a big drop during the last twelve months. This is where raw MLS data may lead us to some improper conclusions about pricing. I have been told that about 35 percent of these recent sales have been short sales or lender foreclosures. In either case, these were distress sales that may not have been purely arm's length transactions and the houses may have been sold at less than open market value.
Since there is such a large percentage of these distress sales in Pinellas County, they are most likely having an adverse effect on the pricing data and may be forcing the reported numbers to appear lower than they should be. Of course, some other very good real estate agents are saying that the distress sales reflect today's true market value for property, not the results of the overly inflated values of a few years ago when the market was super-heated. There may be some validity in that concept.
At any rate we know one thing from these figures -- prices continue to fall and the market remains very sluggish despite having loads of motivated sellers and fairly agreeable mortgage rates. So, where are the buyers? If you find out, please let me know.
For more information about real estate in the Tampa Bay area, visit my website at http://www.thestpeterealestatesite.com/.
We begin, as usual, with a look at the Absorption Rate (AR). The AR is the inventory turn and it is determined by dividing the number of units sold in the month by the total number of units in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS).
The AR for single family homes fell in October to 6.0 percent; in September it was at 6.2 percent. That's not much of a drop, I grant you, but it is a drop nonetheless. For condominiums, the AR remained the same in October as it was in September at 3.6 percent. That AR is not so good for condo sellers, because it looks like the market is both slow and flat for condos.
Single Family Homes
In October, there were 8,691 single family homes listed for sale in the MLS system. In September there were 8,642. So, the number of homes on the market increased a bit in the last month.
Of those homes in the MLS during October, only 523 were sold. That's down a little from September's sales figure of 536 units sold.
The median price for a single family home fell to $150,000 in Pinellas County. Just a year ago in October of 2007, the median stood at $212,000. So, we've seen a 29.2 percent drop in the median price. The average selling price, reported as the "mean" price in the MLS data, was at $199,700 for October 2008; it was at $286,400 for October 2007. That is a drop in average selling price of 30.3 percent. That's good news for buyers, but disappointing news for sellers.
Condominiums
In October, the MLS reported 7,112 condos for sale in Pinellas County. That's up a little from the 7,061 for sale in September.
Condo sales remained at about the same level. In October there were 255 condos sold in the County, as compared to 251 sold in September. Not much activity, is it?
The median price for condos in Pinellas County fell to $137,000 in October of 2008. In October of 2007 it was at $180,000. That's a drop in median of 24.2 percent. The mean or average price in October 2008 was $227,300 as compared to October 2007 of $318,000. That's a drop in average price of 28.5 percent. Again, good news for buyers, bad news for sellers.
If you're like me, you're seeing these prices taking a big drop during the last twelve months. This is where raw MLS data may lead us to some improper conclusions about pricing. I have been told that about 35 percent of these recent sales have been short sales or lender foreclosures. In either case, these were distress sales that may not have been purely arm's length transactions and the houses may have been sold at less than open market value.
Since there is such a large percentage of these distress sales in Pinellas County, they are most likely having an adverse effect on the pricing data and may be forcing the reported numbers to appear lower than they should be. Of course, some other very good real estate agents are saying that the distress sales reflect today's true market value for property, not the results of the overly inflated values of a few years ago when the market was super-heated. There may be some validity in that concept.
At any rate we know one thing from these figures -- prices continue to fall and the market remains very sluggish despite having loads of motivated sellers and fairly agreeable mortgage rates. So, where are the buyers? If you find out, please let me know.
For more information about real estate in the Tampa Bay area, visit my website at http://www.thestpeterealestatesite.com/.
-30-
posted by Terry Ward at 5:52 AM
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