Fishkind Predicts Real Estate Recovery Is Years Away
I've always had a lot of respect for Florida economist Hank Fishkind. Sure, his housing predictions for 2008 were off by 42-percent since he did not anticipate the Wall Street mess. But over the years Fishkind has been more right than wrong -- and anybody can have a bad year when it comes to crystal-balling the future.
That said, Fishkind is now reporting that real estate sales in the Tampa Bay area will be lackluster for the next four years. Tight credit and weak population growth will be the primary culprits for this slow recovery, according to Fishkind. So, between now and 2012 Fishkind thinks the Tampa Bay area will see flat or even weaker sales. The only possible bright spot might be a gradual upturn in sales activity in Hillsborough County, but their commercial real estate sector may fall flat due to overbuilding -- especially shopping centers.
I've written about this before and I'm glad to see that Fishkind agrees, but prices will not start to rise until the huge surplus of homes on the market is vastly reduced. Fishkind predicts that prices will rise as inventory is reduced over time. He said that average prices will stabilize and finally start to rise in about four more years. His prediction? Prices will increase 10.7-percent in Pinellas; 13.8-percent in Hillsborough; 17.2-percent in Pasco; and 9.1-percent in Hernando by 2012.
If you're thinking that retirees are going to come charging to the real estate rescue, Fishkind says to not hold your breath. He thinks that many baby boomer retirees just won't have the financial resources to make a big move from the midwest and northeast to Florida. He jokes that for many baby boomers, their 401k's are really 101k's.
Of course, if you need to sell today these predictions of increasing value by 2012 are of no real help to you. The market is what the market is, and if you need to sell now you will only get today's market value for your property. That market value today is currently depressed and may actually still be spiraling downward in the local area.
By the way, just to kind of reinforce what Fishkind is predicting for Florida, the National Association of Realtors reported that pending U.S. home sales fell to the lowest level on record in November of 2008. And to add a little salt to the wounds, old-line home builder Jim Walter Homes has decided to close shop and 230 employees will lose their jobs -- 45 in Tampa. Like Fishkind says, job loss has a lot to do with the real estate problems in this area.
Thanks, Hank! If you can think of any more news like this, please keep it to yourself.
For more information on real estate in the Tampa Bay area, visit my website at www.TheStPeteRealEstateSite.com.
That said, Fishkind is now reporting that real estate sales in the Tampa Bay area will be lackluster for the next four years. Tight credit and weak population growth will be the primary culprits for this slow recovery, according to Fishkind. So, between now and 2012 Fishkind thinks the Tampa Bay area will see flat or even weaker sales. The only possible bright spot might be a gradual upturn in sales activity in Hillsborough County, but their commercial real estate sector may fall flat due to overbuilding -- especially shopping centers.
I've written about this before and I'm glad to see that Fishkind agrees, but prices will not start to rise until the huge surplus of homes on the market is vastly reduced. Fishkind predicts that prices will rise as inventory is reduced over time. He said that average prices will stabilize and finally start to rise in about four more years. His prediction? Prices will increase 10.7-percent in Pinellas; 13.8-percent in Hillsborough; 17.2-percent in Pasco; and 9.1-percent in Hernando by 2012.
If you're thinking that retirees are going to come charging to the real estate rescue, Fishkind says to not hold your breath. He thinks that many baby boomer retirees just won't have the financial resources to make a big move from the midwest and northeast to Florida. He jokes that for many baby boomers, their 401k's are really 101k's.
Of course, if you need to sell today these predictions of increasing value by 2012 are of no real help to you. The market is what the market is, and if you need to sell now you will only get today's market value for your property. That market value today is currently depressed and may actually still be spiraling downward in the local area.
By the way, just to kind of reinforce what Fishkind is predicting for Florida, the National Association of Realtors reported that pending U.S. home sales fell to the lowest level on record in November of 2008. And to add a little salt to the wounds, old-line home builder Jim Walter Homes has decided to close shop and 230 employees will lose their jobs -- 45 in Tampa. Like Fishkind says, job loss has a lot to do with the real estate problems in this area.
Thanks, Hank! If you can think of any more news like this, please keep it to yourself.
For more information on real estate in the Tampa Bay area, visit my website at www.TheStPeteRealEstateSite.com.
-30-
posted by Terry Ward at 3:03 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home