See What's New On My Website

I've got some great new buttons on my website that I think you'll like. Here's what you'll find ...

• Search Local Listings (MLS) -- This allows you to do your own property search when looking for a new home. It's accurate and timely because it's tied into the local Multiple Listing Service. I think you'll find it easy to use as well.
• Mortgage Calculator -- Once you have a good idea what your mortgage interest rate is going to be, go to my mortgage calculator and figure out how much the monthly principal and interest charges are going to be for that dream house you're going to buy. It's easy. It's informative. It's a must use for every home buyer.
• Residence Magazine -- This is really cool. Residence International Magazine is a quarterly publication that advertises those really high-end properties you find for sale throughout the world. You know, things like mansions in southern France, ranches in Brazil, island hideaways and towhhomes in New York City. It's fun just to look at those kind of homes. You can thumb page by page through Residence Magazine now just by clicking on a button on my website. By the way, when I list high end properties I advertise them in the pages of Residence International Magazine.
• Video -- A few years ago I produced a video which gives home buyers and sellers a lot of helpful hints to reach their goals. While some of the percentages and other minor details have changed recently, the essential elements of the video are still true and correct. So, I decided to put it up on the website. Why not give it a look-see? It runs about 10 minutes.

The website also contains useful information about neighborhoods in St. Petersburg, links to some very informative sites, local weather, data on me and lots of other interesting things. So if you haven't been there yet, please pay me a visit and let me know what you think of it. A website is always a project under construction, so if you want me to add something please let me know and I'll see what I can do.

So, where is this fabulous, infomative, action-packed website? Here's the link: www.thestpeterealestatesite.com. I hope you find it useful.

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Some Thoughts On Property Taxes

For many, many months I've been trading e-mails with the Pinellas County Board of County Commissioners regarding taxation policies here.

My feeling, and that of other property owners who I know, is that the actual dollar figures collected for taxes are too much. In fact, the St. Petersburg Times reported on August 19th that property tax receipts in the county have increased 61% in the last five years.

That, my friend, is a lot of money. In fact, the Times indicates that Pinellas County is swimming in surplus funds, but somehow manages to spend all those extra tax dollars every budget year.

The responses I receive from my e-mails to the County Commission have always been polite, timely and "politically correct". By that I mean I've received responses that consistently present the need for taxes, that tax policy is really set in Tallahassee not Clearwater, and that what's really unfair is the inequities found as a result of the Save Our Homes laws that put an unfair taxation amount upon those who recently purchased property.

My point to the Commission has always been that homeowners have limited resources and the actual number of real dollars collected in property taxes creates a genuine burden on people, and that burden needs to be reduced.

Recently I received an e-mail from a commissioner that detailed a very minor decrease in the millage rate. It's malarkey. It's meaningless. As measured against the vast increase in real dollars collected in taxes by Pinellas County in recent years, the reduction in millage rate is a joke.

What The Big Boss Beaucrat Is Saying

Planet Realtor publishes a newsletter that goes to real estate agents throughout Florida; I read it regularly. I'm going to quote its August 27th story because it carries an article about tax policy which quotes Jim Smith. You'll find this very interesting!

"Jim Smith, the elected property appraiser in Pinellas County, Florida, which includes St. Petersburg and Clearwater, says government spending is the problem, not higher property values. He says elected officials use higher asessments as a way to raise taxes without admitting it. 'It's the big lie,' Smith says. 'I'm fed up with them claiming they cut taxes because they lowered the tax rate, at the same time they're collecting more money because of higher assessments.'"

The article goes on to explain that every year, Florida property appraisers give local elected officials an estimate of what the tax rate should be so that taxes don't go up even if property values have. This is called the Rollback Rate. "If they don't want to spend more money, they can use the Rollback Rate," said Smith. "Of course, they never do. Instead, they get to have a tax increase while claiming they lower taxes."

What It Means

So, every year the Board of County Commissioners is presented with a way to control taxes by controlling spending, and they choose to ignore it. They choose to spend more dollars -- your dollars. So, every year the amount of hard-won dollars that you must pay in property taxes goes up, even though your millage rate may go down. So every year there's more money to grow bigger and bigger government. Like me, you've probably noticed that as government grows it's appetite for more and more money grows right along with it.

What Can Be Done?

So, if you're concerned about your property tax burden, what can you do about it?

I wish I knew. Perhaps the answer can be found in the Rollback Rate. Perhaps not.

Write letters, send e-mails, go to commission meetings, write letters to the editor. Express your concern about this matter whenever you get the chance. And do it loudly! Sooner or later the Commission might hear you and get the message.

In the meantime, grit your teeth and write that check.

For more information about real estate in Pinellas County, visit my website at www.thestpeterealestatesite.com.

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I Hope You Didn't Miss Them!

I hope you didn't miss the wonderful articles in the St. Petersburg Times' Homes section for Saturday, August 19, 2006. Judy Stark, the Times Homes Editor, had an outstanding series of stories about buying and selling real estate in today's marketplace. If you missed the paper on Saturday, go on-line and read it. It's absolutely worth the effort.

If you're trying to sell a home now, Judy's stories will give you some good advice and will make you think about what you want to accomplish and how you can get there. Incentives are becoming key issues in selling today in this new buyer's market. And remember, Mr. Seller, the market you're in today is about 180-degress different than the market of 18 months ago. Today, buyers call the tune.

If you're buying, your time has finally come. But you have to be realistic about things. Low-ball offers may be tempting, but they put everybody on edge and you won't be making any friends -- and quite often you won't be getting the house either. Get used to high prices, high taxes and high insurance -- Judy calls this the "new normal" in Florida real estate. I love that term, although I hate what it means.

The other new normal that I've discovered recently is negotiating. Buyers are trying to purchase property as low as they can, and sellers still want as much as they can get. This leads to offer-counteroffer negotiating that was rare a year or so ago when houses sold at asking price (or more) and low offers were rarely accepted or even considered. That's a big change.

My only criticism is that since Judy writes for the St. Petersburg Times, she might have obtained a few quotes from real estate agents and developers in Pinellas County, rather than only interviewing agents in Hillsborough. Hey, Judy, we're up on market conditions and like to see our names and opinions in print from time to time too!

Anyway, it's a well-done set of articles and I sure hope you take the time to read them.

For more infomation about real estate in the Tampa Bay area, visit my website at www.thestpeterealestatesite.com.

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Rate The Schools!

If you're moving to a new city, anywhere in the United States, and are concerned about which school may be best for your child, try going to www.schoolmatters.com. This is a service of Standard & Poor's so you know it is accurate. Using a number of criteria, you'll be able to judge various grade schools and high schools throughout the area, and then decide which school might be best for you kids.

If you'd like more information about real estate in the Tampa Bay area, visit my website at www.thestpeterealestatesite.com.

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Real Estate Agents Aren't To Blame

Recently a friend introduced me to one of his "golfing" buddies. As usual I was introduced as a real estate agent.

Have you ever heard the term "black with rage" to describe how angry somebody can get? As soon as I was introduced as a real estate agent this fellow's face certainly made it to purple, which is pretty close to black -- mostly it's a mixture of black tinged with red for rage. In other words, this man did not receive my introduction in a graceful, gracious manner.

Right on the spot he exploded into a tirade about how real estate agents -- dirty, lazy, egg-sucking dogs that they are -- are solely responsible for the current high price of real estate. If it wasn't for those greedy, scummy, low-life agents, he'd be able to sell that house he bought last year and buy a new house. Real estate agents screwed up the entire system because they pushed the prices up too high too fast. Now, all the buyers are gone. As a result he's stuck with his current house and can't move up to what he really wants.

I'm leaving out all the foul language. Let's just say that this man used four letter words as descriptive adjectives -- and he was very descriptive in his opinion of real estate agents.

Somehow I felt that there would be no reasoning with this man, so I merely held out my hand, made my excuses and left. I felt that trying to defend my industry and explain current pricing would be useless in this case.

If I had stayed around, I would have pointed out that the pricing structure for real estate has nothing to do with real estate brokers or their agents. It has everything to do with the interaction between sellers -- the people who set the initial asking price on property -- and buyers -- the people who decide how much to offer against the asking price. The real estate agent simply supplies information to both parties regarding current asking and sold prices for similar properties. This is to be used as a financial guide by both parties during the negotiation. So, real estate prices are the direct reflection of activitiy between buyers and sellers, not the activities of real estate brokers.

Actually, there are a whole lot of things that influence the price of real estate but such a discussion would have been impossible with our angry friend. Mortgage rates, taxation policy, insurance, availability of mortgage funds, supply and demand, property condition, employment and income, why, the list is virually endless. Can you imagine me trying to discuss those items in a reasonable tone of voice with this man? Forget it. Life ain't that long and I don't have that kind of patience! The real estate agent acts simply as an advisor and strategist, then works to make the transaction close.

I'll tell you one thing, I'll bet my friend never introduces me as a real estate agent again! Future introductions will probably go something like this, "This is Terry Ward. He's in the uh ... errrrr ... mmmm ... the blogging business." Hmm, that may not be safe either.

If you'd like more information about current real estate conditions, visit my website at www.thestpeterealestatesite.com.

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When The Market's Down, Up The Commission

Those of you who read this blog regularly know that I'm a big fan of Robert J. Bruss. Bruss, from Burlingame, California, writes a syndicated real estate column that appears weekly in the St. Petersburg Times. Sometimes I agree with his comments and sometimes I don't, but I always find the "Sage Of Burlingame" to give interesting and factual advice.

In this week's column, Bruss takes on the sagging real estate market with some advice that I've been giving out for months and months -- when the market's down, up the commission.

Bruss published a letter from someone whose house had been on the market for a long time with no buyers. The seller asked his agent to increase the commission to 7 percent and offer a 4 percent commission to buyer agents in the area. In that market, I suppose, the "normal" real estate commission is probably 6 percent. The seller reports that after the commission was increased the house went under contract in 10 days. In fact, the letter reports that the seller received two offers within that time period.

Now, that could have just been a coincidence, but I don't think so. By upping the commission by 1 percentage point, the seller was able to separate his house from others for sale in the market and get more attention from buyer agents. That single percentage point in commission resulted in a successful sale by providing an extra added incentive to buyer agents to show the subject house rather than other houses offering a lower commission. Apparently, a high commission goes a long way toward getting agent attention. Attention from agents results in extra showings. Showings are the key to getting sales. Pretty simple, eh?

I know of a number of real estate agents who have recently upped the buyer side commission on properties they own personally as a way to get them sold. Some have met with success, others haven't yet. But if agents are doing this on their own properties, it might be a good idea for all of us to give some serious thought to this strategy.

A big tip of the hat to Bob Bruss for passing along this good idea for more successful selling.

If you'd like more information on real estate in the Tampa Bay area, please visit my website at www.thestpeterealestatesite.com.

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Sales Continue To Suffer In July

I had my fingers crossed that the July figures would show an improved selling environment for real estate.

So much for finger crossing and all other forms of superstition.

July was the worst month this year.

As usual let's begin with the absorption rate, which is the inventory turnover and is calculated by dividing the number of units sold during the month by the total number of listings in the Multiple Listing Service.

For July, the absorption rate for single family homes was 8.6%. By comparison, it was a robust 51.5% for July of 2005.

July looked even worse for condos. The July absorption rate was 4.8%, the worst I've ever seen. In July of last year it stood at 43.6%.

It was at this time last year that I first began to notice the overall downturn in the real estate market. That downturn has continued unabated. So, for those of you who keep track of such things, we've been in a declining real estate market locally for about one full year.

The median price has fallen as well, so if you're selling you need to keep this in mind when setting your price and negotiating with a prospective buyer. The fact is that the median price for a single family home now stands at $230,000. In July 2005 the median was $256,600 -- quite a big drop. For condos, the median in July was $170,000 as compared to $185,000 for July 2005.

It appears to me that prices are now being lowered by the overall softening of the real estate market. For buyers, that's really great news. For sellers, it's time to get realistic about your property's value in today's new market. If you didn't get your property sold during the first half of 2005, you've probably missed out on the opportunity for really high dollar sales figures until the next big uptick in the real estate market -- and nobody knows when that will be.

Single family home listings are soaring! In July, there were 9,549 single family homes listed for sale in the MLS. In July of 2005 there were only 2,552. If you're selling a home today, this means your competition has increased by 375%, almost a quadrupeling of homes on the market. And this does not account for homes that are not in the MLS but are for sale directly with their owners -- FSBO's usually account for about 10% of the total market of available single family homes.

Single family home sales are lagging! July was simply a terrible month for home sales. Only 825 homes were sold. By comparison, in July 2005, 1,314 single family homes were sold. Quite a drop.

So, for single family homes we have loads of property on the market and apparently a shrinking number of people willing to buy them. Sounds like the formula for a pretty strong buyer's market to me.

How did condos fare? About the same. But I think condos and towhhomes have another problem and it is even more serious. Overbuilding.

Condo listings continue to skyrocket! Condo listings have been moving upward at a fairly steady rate all year, and July was no exception. The MLS for July shows a total of 6,194 condo units for sale. Only 1,486 were for sale in July of 2005. That's a very significant jump in inventory in a twelve month period. Is the condo/townhome market overbuilt?

Condo sales continue to fall! Despite all those beautiful new condos on the beach and the stunning townhomes going in downtown, few people seem interested in buying condominiums and towhhomes anymore. I guess all those speculators who drove up sales and values have gone away and are putting their money in other types of investments. As a consequence, condo sales in July fell to their lowest level in 5-1/2 years. Only 299 condos were purchased in July, as compared to 648 condo sales in July 2005. I think the bloom is off the rose when it comes to condo/townhome sales.

For condos, it appears that we have a glut of inventory and a lack of interest in purchasing. Condo sellers and developers need to respond with incentives to get more buyers back into the condo market -- and they need to do it quickly. This is sure a good time to be a condo buyer. You should be able to drive a real hard bargain and obtain loads of consessions from sellers and developers. The watchword in buying condos is clear: "Ask and you shall receive."

Well, folks, there you have it. I wish it was better news for sellers, but those are the actual facts and you'll have to respond accordingly. For buyers, it's your time so take advantage of it. Mortgage rates are still at an historically low level although they are creeping up. I'd act now if I were in your shoes.

What's my prediction for Agusut? Well, historically the overall absorption rate for August has been less than that for July, so I expect another drop in the absorption rate. Perhaps I'll be wrong, but I wouldn't count on it -- I've got years of data spread out all over my desk as I make my prediction.

For more information about real estate matters, visit my website at www.thestpeterealestatesite.com.

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Where Are All The Baby-Boomers Retiring?

I was afraid of something like this. I mean, really afraid of it. Now, it may be happening. Drip by drip. Inch by inch. Dollar by dollar.

Just like me, deep down in their financial planning programs a great many of my friends have an underlying long term belief that their real estate investments are going to pay off handsomely because ultimately all of those baby boomers are going to want to retire to some place warm and sunny, like Florida. So, there will always be a market for Florida property, like mine. It may be a bit of a long term investment, but it's always going to be a rock-solid, can't miss, absolutely certain long-term investment.

Maybe. Maybe not.

Word out now is that it may not be quite as rock solid as we think because baby boomers may not be able to retire to Florida in as large a set of numbers as we had been led to believe. Plus, now there's competition and reasons for them to stay at home.

Active adult communities for retired baby boomers are being developed in states which are not normally associted with sun-n-fun active retirements. As property values in Florida, Nevada and California skyrocket to the point where only the very well healed can afford such a retirement lifestyle, many baby boomers appear to be opting to remain at home and stay close to the old hometown, children and grandchildren.

Developers, like Pulte Homes' Del Webb division, are playing right into the hands of stay-at-home retirees. They are now developing retirement communities that are jam-packed with great amenities, like golf courses and community centers, and urging baby boomers to look no farther than their own home towns for that active lifestyle formerly found only in sunbelt states. During a recent trip to Missouri, I was very impressed with the retirment living communities being deveoped along large lakes in the central and southern parts of that state -- and the prices were very, very affordable compared to similar properties in good ol' St. Pete.

Pulte now has retirement communities catering to baby boomers in 17 states and expects to establish additional communities in New Mexico, Minnesota, Indiana, New York, Delaware, Tennessee and Georgia by 2008. With prices now so very high in traditional locations such as Florida, California and Nevada, many baby boomes are opting to stay close to home and hearth rather than packing up and heading south and west.

In addition, local muncipalities are showing support for these new developments. After all, active adult communities add value to the local tax base without overburdening such infastructure matters as schools, sewer, water lines and roadways. For cities, its a win-win situation and they are starting to take active steps to keep baby boomer retirees at home.

So, if you are like a lot of people heavily invested in Florida real estate thinking it is a great long term investment because of the popularity of the Sunshine State as a retirement center, well, you may want to give that just a bit of a second thought. Sure, Florida will always have a great draw among retirees, but with high prices, high taxes, high insurance, hurricanes and competition from other states it may not be quite the pull it has been in the past, and that may impact you in your personal retirment pocketbook.

If you'd like to keep pace with what's going on in real estate in the Tampa Bay area, visit my website at www.thestpeterealestatesite.com.

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Berson's Forecasts For Real Estate

David Berson, chief economist for Fannie Mae, gave his midyear teleconference to some Wall Street analysts on July 20th. Here are the highlights of his comments ...

• The Federal Reserve will tighten interest rates by moving up short-term interest this summer. After that, rates are likely to stabilize for awhile.
• Average home price appreciation will drop to 3 percent or less by the end of this year. (Most "experts" project appreciation to average 4 to 6 percent nationally, so Berson is a but more bearish than others.)
• If speculative investors dump rental houses and second homes purchased during the last five years in larger than anticipated numbers, Berson projects price appreciation to fall to 1 to 1-1/2 percent annually -- a level not seen since the recession of the early 1990's.
• In markets where investors accounted for large shares of boom-time property value increases, Berson predicts a good chance for declining property values. San Diego and large parts of California as well as large portions of Florida fall into this category although Berson believes Orlando will be immune from such declines.
• Condominiums are the weakest link in the housing market and the most vulnerable to decline and investor dumping. Significant price corrections could be just over the horizon for condos due to the glut of unsold units, new inventory and apartment conversions.
• Berson does not see a nationwide downturn in property values. Only in markets where speculation was rampant in 2003-2005 and where job and population growth are anemic are there risks of significant declines in value.
• Berson does not anticipate mortgage rates climbing significantly higher than today's rates which historically are on the low side.

Based on these predictions, if I was a seller I'd think very seriously about providing the buyer with wide reaching incentives, including taking back a second mortgage and other kinds of seller-based financing options. I'd also make sure my price was realistic given today's marketplace for real estate, and that my real estate agent was using the very best marketing approaches. If I was a buyer, I'd say that your time has come. It looks like qualified buyers should be able to acquire properties at prices and terms that were unthinkable a year or two ago. It sounds like it will be a good time to be a real estate buyer.

If you'd like to know more about real estate, visit my web site, www.thestpeterealestatesite.com.

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St. Joseph: Proper Burial Procedures

One of the nice things about being a real estate agent is that I receive an e-mailed newsletter from Planet Realtor.com. It has lots of info about the business and helps keep real estate agents updated on the latest trends and legal matters affecting real estate.

The newsletter has just run an article detailing the proper methodology for burying a statue of St. Joseph as an aid to selling. Appealing to St. Joseph for help in selling a house is a tradition that goes back about 200 years, or so says the newsletter. Since my last blog article dealt with the metphysical approach to selling, I feel it only fair to discuss the religious aspects of the same subject. Besides, with home sales off by as much as 40 percent and buyers waiting to see how low sellers will go before making offers, home sellers need all the help they can get including enlisting the aid of St. Joseph.

So, if you're going to bury a statue you may as well do it right. Here are the rules ...

According to the newsletter, St. Joseph needs to be buried with his feet toward heaven. Two locations seem to be acceptable, either in the backyard or near the "For Sale" sign. I guess if you have a "For Sale" sign in your backyard as many waterfront houses do, that would be extra credit. The statue's face should point toward your house, but some people insist that the face should point toward the new house -- I guess it's up to you.

Once the house is sold, you are supposed to go to the house on a day near the closing date and dig up the statue. Then, you need to say a prayer of thanks to St. Joseph. The statue should be taken to your new house and displayed in a place of honor.

Try it! You have nothing to lose and everything to gain.

If you would like more information about real estate in the Tampa Bay area, go to my web site, www.thestpeterealestatesite.com.

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Tap Into Your Property's Metaphysical Energy To Ensure Fast Sale

Those of you who know me, have done business with me, or even read this blogsite from time to time will probaby agree that I'm usually a pretty well-rounded guy with roots based in reality. I don't come up with wild ideas, undertake oddball excursions or hold fast to any weird fantasies that fly in the face of reality.

Normal. Plain vanilla. That's me.

So, when it comes to selling real estate, you can bet that I'm going to use the tried-n-true marketing approaches that I know have worked in the past, believe will work now, and are most likely going to work in the future.

Sounds pretty reasonable to me.

Well, reason has different meanings to different people. Over the years, I've learned some things about selling real estate that, at first glance anyway, may seem pretty unreasonable. Like burying a statue of St. Joseph in the seller's back yard. Or showing a house based on the ancient Chinese design philosophy of Feng Shui. Or de-cluttering a house using the principles of vaastu shastra where we focus on design and simplification of the environment as they do in far away India. Frankly, I don't have any problem at all with these approaches since they are religious and cultural in nature and are believed to the core by many people who were raised in those lands and hold to those beliefs.

Recently, however, something new has come along for sellers trying to find buyers in a soft market. Somehow, I don't think I'm going to find much proof for the success of this approach in any marketing texts, unless it is under the chapter called "Alternative Approaches".

Sellers and their agents are now being advised to tap into a property's metaphysical energy -- to develop a relationship, if you will, with the property's soul.

Folks, I honestly don't know if houses and condos and duplexes and apartment buildings have souls. And I'm not quite sure how to tap into that soulful energy.

According to practitioners of this metaphysical approach to selling real estate, everything has a soul and that soul gives off energy -- TV's, furniture, cars, you name it. Kind of think of this "energy" as "vibes". People can pick up on these vibes using their intuition. If the house is giving off negative energy, it won't sell. If the place is giving off positive vibes, it will sell. Positive energy is more welcoming to buyers, so they feel comfortable and make a purchase. This energy can be intuitively discerned by people who are in-touch with their inner selves.

Practioners of this metaphysical approach encourage owners of property -- specifically property that is slow to sell -- to literally speak to the property. Ask the house, for example, why it is putting out negative energy and bad vibes to potential buyers. You should then ask the house what can be done so it can accept a new owner.

After that, you are supposed to listen to what the property says.

Desparate times require desparate measures, I guess. But I didn't think things were that bad.

Hey folks, I'm serious about this metaphysical approach and talking to your house stuff! It's the latest thing originating in California and Colorado, so it must have merit! One real estate agent has actually written a book about this approach to selling: The Mystical Guide to Home Inspection (Thornton Publishing Inc., 2005). The author is Faith Ranoli who holds a Ph.D. in metaphysical studies. She even holds workshops on this subject in Denver.

"A house is a living, breathing organism with a life consciousness of its own," Ranoli says in her book. "You have to tap into that consciousness to see what's going on."

Sorry, but I have to end this story now. I have to go talk to a duplex of mine that's not selling. We're going to discuss why the building keeps putting out negative vibes and turning off buyers. I think it will be a pretty one-sided conversation.

If you'd like more information on real estate today, visit my website at www.thestpeterealestatesite.com. You won't find much about metaphysics but you will find something about successful marketing.

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