Prices Falling More Slowly

Here's some good news: it appears that home prices are falling more slowly in the Tampa Bay area.

According to the just released Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home price index, home prices in the Tampa Bay area fell 2.1 percent in April. Prices fell 3.36 percent in March. To be honest, this is kind of like being shot with a smaller bullet because home prices have fallen a whopping 20.4 percent since April 2007. I guess what we are really seeing is a slowdown in the velocity of the bullet, and I think that's a sign that we may be beginning to head for some kind of price stabilization.

By the way, for those who may be trying to figure out if they bought at the "top of the market", well, according to Case-Shiller, prices peaked in the Tampa Bay area in July of 2006. If you bought in that month, well ...

For more information on real estate in the Tampa Bay area, visit my website at http://www.thestpeterealestatesite.com/.

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May Was Better -- Is It A Trend?

If I was an economist I'd know the answer to this question; maybe you know the answer. How many months of something moving in the same direction are needed to make up a trend?

For my money, 2008 represents an upward trend in the Pinellas County real estate market. Let's take a look.

We start as usual with the Absorption Rate (AR), which is actually the monthly inventory turn. It's determined by dividing the number of units sold in the month by the number of units in the MLS.

For single family homes, the AR for May was 6.8%. That's up from April's 6.3%. Here's our first trend ... the AR has been moving upward every month this year. In January it was 3.8%, then 4.3%, 5.4%, 6.3% and May's 6.8%. That's gotta be encouraging.

The condominium AR moved up in May as well. It went from April's 4.1% AR to May's 4.7% AR. Condo AR has also moved up every month in 2008, starting at 2.9% for January, followed by 3.6%, 3.6%, 4.1% and May's 4.7%. This is encouraging news since condos have really taken it on the chin in the last year or so.

But as you know, hard numbers mean more to me than percentages which can sometimes be misleading. So, let's see the hard numbers of listings and sales.

Single Family Homes

Single family listings were down in May to 8,675 units. This is the fourth straight month they've dropped, from 9,005 homes for sale in January to May's 8,675 units. This means there are fewer units each month for buyers to select from, and a little less competition each month for sellers. That might be a good thing for some people, don't you think?

Sales for May were the best this year. There were 590 homes sold versus 549 in April. Sales have gone up every month this year, starting with January's 333 units sold, then 390, 481, and 549 in April. Again I ask: Is this a trend? If it is, I like the way it is going.

The median price range has been pretty flat for the entire year, bouncing around the $180,000 range. In May it was $175,000. For the year ended in May of '08, the median was down 15% which is a significant drop and tells you which way the market is heading.

Condo Info

I can't hardly believe it, but condo data looks better!

The number of listings was down again in May to 7,469 condos on the market. There have been fewer condos each month this year, starting with January's 8,145. The number on the market has dropped a little every month. Is this a trend?

Condo sales were the best in May that we've had all year. There were 351 condo sales in May. Sales are trending upward. In January, only 237 condos were sold -- and that's supposed to be the peak season. Condo sales just keep inching upward every month. Trend or not? You tell me.

Here's the most surprising thing about condos. Compared to the median price of May 2007, the median condo price went up 3.8% for May 2008. The median condo price now stands at $175,900. Great news if you're selling a condo! I really don't think this upward shift in sales value is a trend. There's just too much evidence that the market is moving downward in price. We'll have to keep an eye on that statistic.

So, there you have it. A little less inventory. A little more sales activity. It's been moving that way pretty much since the first of the year. Just a tiny improvement every month. Step-by step, inch-by-inch. But moving in the right direction. So, you tell me. Is this an upward trend or just some kind of anomaly?

Let's see how things look at the end of June. I'll file another report for you then.

In the meantime, if you want to know more about real estate in the Tampa Bay area, visit my website at http://www.thestpeterealestatesite.com/.

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