November Sales ... Ugh!
I actually thought the real estate market in Pinellas County was starting to look brighter in September and October. But in November, somebody dimmed the lights.
Let's take a quick look.
We begin, as usual, with the Absorption Rate (AR). In November, the AR for single family homes fell to 9.6% from October's 11.3%. That's a pretty sizeable drop for one month and it is absolutely moving in the wrong direction. For condos about all you can say is that the slide continued. The condo AR for November fell to 5.7% from October's not-so-darn-good-anyway rate of 6.8%. I'll have more info on condos later in this report, and frankly, it ain't too cheery.
Single Family Homes
During November, the MLS reported 6,096 single family homes listed for sale. That's a decrease from October's 6,373. To be honest, we didn't sell a bunch of homes to create this decline in listings. I think a lot of sellers simply have thrown in the towel and taken their property off the market hoping that things will get better someday soon and they can re-enter the marketplace. They would still like to sell the property, but have lost patience with keeping the place model-home clean, appointments at the dinner hour, open houses on Sunday and all the rest of it. We call these "ghost sellers" and they will be back at some point. When you add in these ghost listings, there are a lot more homes on the market than what is reported in the current MLS.
November saw only 586 sales. We did a lot better in October when 718 single family homes were sold. There may be a lot of reasons for this decline and about all we can do is hope that the market comes back this fall and winter.
I don't know what to say about the median prices. If you look at November 2009 versus November 2008, the median price has dropped another 8.4%, from $159,900 to today's $146,500 for single family homes.
But if you look at median prices since January 2009 to the end of November, prices have risen! In January, the median was $124,500 versus today's $146,500 -- a tidy little increase for 11 months.
What I think we should keep in mind is the definition of a "median price". The median -- and I have explained this before -- is the figure at which half the buyers paid less and half the buyers paid more. It's the halfway point. To my way of thinking, if the median goes up it means that buyers appear to be willing to buy more expensive homes, or at least pay a bit more for a house they want. I don't think it really says too much about the VALUE of a piece of real estate, and I don't think it means real estate prices are rising. It simply means that buyers are buying more expensive houses than they were in past months. So, maybe we've just attracted some more affluent buyers, I don't know. Time will tell.
Condominiums
This is getting bad. Really, really bad.
In November, the MLS reported 5,382 condos on the market in Pinellas County. In October there were 5,619 condo units listed for sale. That's a lot of unsold inventory.
Sales took it on the chin in November. Only 305 condos were sold, and this is supposed to be the start of "the season". In October there were 381 condo sales. So, we sold fewer units.
Here's the thing about condos that will make your head spin -- or at least it made mine zip around. In November the median price for condos in Pinellas County was only $116,000. In November of 2008 it was up at $125,500. That's an annual drop of 7.6% year over year. Now remember, the same definition of median pricing holds here about condos. To my way of thinking it means that buyers are buying even less expensive condos now than they were a year ago!
I went back and found out the median price for condos in January 2009, thinking to make a nice comparison and show that median prices were rising a little like they did for single family homes throughout the year. Nope. Didn't happen. In January 2009, the median price for a condo was $125,000 and now it's dropped to $116,000. So this means buyers are probably willing to pay even less for condos now than they were willing to pay for them earlier this year. To me, this kind of signifies that today's buyers don't see as much value in condos and the condominium lifestyle as they have in the past. Anybody think I might be right with that kind of idea?
To my way of thinking, the condo market as a whole continues to slide. Overbuilding of units and a change in the demographics of Pinellas County probably have a lot to do with it.
So, that's where we stand as of the end of November. Kind of a ho-hum month, but condos got the worst of it ... again.
Happy Selling!
-30-
Let's take a quick look.
We begin, as usual, with the Absorption Rate (AR). In November, the AR for single family homes fell to 9.6% from October's 11.3%. That's a pretty sizeable drop for one month and it is absolutely moving in the wrong direction. For condos about all you can say is that the slide continued. The condo AR for November fell to 5.7% from October's not-so-darn-good-anyway rate of 6.8%. I'll have more info on condos later in this report, and frankly, it ain't too cheery.
Single Family Homes
During November, the MLS reported 6,096 single family homes listed for sale. That's a decrease from October's 6,373. To be honest, we didn't sell a bunch of homes to create this decline in listings. I think a lot of sellers simply have thrown in the towel and taken their property off the market hoping that things will get better someday soon and they can re-enter the marketplace. They would still like to sell the property, but have lost patience with keeping the place model-home clean, appointments at the dinner hour, open houses on Sunday and all the rest of it. We call these "ghost sellers" and they will be back at some point. When you add in these ghost listings, there are a lot more homes on the market than what is reported in the current MLS.
November saw only 586 sales. We did a lot better in October when 718 single family homes were sold. There may be a lot of reasons for this decline and about all we can do is hope that the market comes back this fall and winter.
I don't know what to say about the median prices. If you look at November 2009 versus November 2008, the median price has dropped another 8.4%, from $159,900 to today's $146,500 for single family homes.
But if you look at median prices since January 2009 to the end of November, prices have risen! In January, the median was $124,500 versus today's $146,500 -- a tidy little increase for 11 months.
What I think we should keep in mind is the definition of a "median price". The median -- and I have explained this before -- is the figure at which half the buyers paid less and half the buyers paid more. It's the halfway point. To my way of thinking, if the median goes up it means that buyers appear to be willing to buy more expensive homes, or at least pay a bit more for a house they want. I don't think it really says too much about the VALUE of a piece of real estate, and I don't think it means real estate prices are rising. It simply means that buyers are buying more expensive houses than they were in past months. So, maybe we've just attracted some more affluent buyers, I don't know. Time will tell.
Condominiums
This is getting bad. Really, really bad.
In November, the MLS reported 5,382 condos on the market in Pinellas County. In October there were 5,619 condo units listed for sale. That's a lot of unsold inventory.
Sales took it on the chin in November. Only 305 condos were sold, and this is supposed to be the start of "the season". In October there were 381 condo sales. So, we sold fewer units.
Here's the thing about condos that will make your head spin -- or at least it made mine zip around. In November the median price for condos in Pinellas County was only $116,000. In November of 2008 it was up at $125,500. That's an annual drop of 7.6% year over year. Now remember, the same definition of median pricing holds here about condos. To my way of thinking it means that buyers are buying even less expensive condos now than they were a year ago!
I went back and found out the median price for condos in January 2009, thinking to make a nice comparison and show that median prices were rising a little like they did for single family homes throughout the year. Nope. Didn't happen. In January 2009, the median price for a condo was $125,000 and now it's dropped to $116,000. So this means buyers are probably willing to pay even less for condos now than they were willing to pay for them earlier this year. To me, this kind of signifies that today's buyers don't see as much value in condos and the condominium lifestyle as they have in the past. Anybody think I might be right with that kind of idea?
To my way of thinking, the condo market as a whole continues to slide. Overbuilding of units and a change in the demographics of Pinellas County probably have a lot to do with it.
So, that's where we stand as of the end of November. Kind of a ho-hum month, but condos got the worst of it ... again.
Happy Selling!
-30-
posted by Terry Ward at 6:39 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home