What Was Your Property Worth In 2003?

Those wanting to sell a house in the Tampa Bay area today should first ask themselves this question: What was my property worth six years ago?

Try and give an honest answer. Don't inflate it to where you wish it was, but try to determine what it was really worth back then. What would you have paid for your house in 2003?

Remember, this was before the big price run up of 2005-2006.

Got the number? Good.

You know what? That's what your house is worth today according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. The index shows that home prices have fallen 39 percent in the Tampa Bay area since reaching their peak in July of 2006. This drop in prices means that values today are where they were in November, 2003. Some 23-percent of that price drop has taken place from February 2008 to February 2009 in Pinellas, Pasco, Hillsborough and Hernando counties.

We must be at or near the bottom of the market now, right? Well, maybe not.

Economist Joshua Shapiro informed the Wall Street Journal that "We continue to believe that it is unlikely that we are anywhere near a bottom in nationwide home prices." That's bad news for sellers, great news for buyers.

My suggestion to home sellers is simply this: If we are at 2003 prices now and it looks like prices may continue to drop, you need to adjust your price to current market conditions now and get the house sold at today's prices. If you wait and do not lower your price, the value of your property will likely be even less with the passage of time. In other words, sell it for what you can today, or perhaps take less in the future.

Apparently, the bottom is not in sight.

For more information on real estate in the Tampa Bay area, visit my website at www.TheStPeteRealEstateSite.com.

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March Sales Figures Are Encouraging

I've been waiting a long time to report some good news about real estate sales in Pinellas County, and that time appears to have finally arrived.

March sales figures showed continued improvement. In fact, sales have been on the upswing for the entire first quarter of 2009.

Does this mean the real estate crisis is over? Does this mean we are coming out of the recession?

Well, let's not go overboard. But it may be the beginning of improved times. Let's take a look at the numbers.

We begin, as usual, with a look at the Absorption Rate (AR). This is the inventory turn. It is calculated by dividing the number of units sold in a month by the total number of units in the MLS.

For single family homes, the AR was 7.7-percent in March. That's up from 6.0-percent in February and 4.9-percent in January of 2009.

For condos, the AR for March was 4.9-percent, February was 3.9-percent and January was 2.8-percent.

If nothing else, these AR percentages show continual growth for the first quarter of 2009 -- and I think that's encouraging. It means there are buyers out there and they are making deals. They may be short sales in many cases, but they are transactions nonetheless.

Single Family Sales

During March the Pinellas MLS had a total of 7,492 single family homes listed in inventory. That's a decrease in total inventory from the 7,799 in February and the 7,835 in January. As you can see, each month there have been fewer units in inventory in the MLS. We have to get this excess inventory off the market before prices can stabilize and the market reaches the so-called "bottom". Reducing inventory each month is a good sign.

Sales increased during March as well. Sales grew to a total of 574 units for the month, an increase over February's 467 and January's 381. Increasing sales is a very good sign of better things to come, don't you think?

The median price was at $140,000 for March. That's a drop of 22.2-percent in median price from March of 2008.

Condominium Sales

Condo listings remained at about the same level in March as they were in February and January. In March, there were 6,671 condos in the Pinellas County MLS system. In February there were 6,775, and in January 6,701. Those figures are pretty much stable.

Condo sales, however, have been steadily rising this quarter. In January, 189 were sold; in February, 265; and in March, 330 condos were sold. Again, we're seeing a nice steady increase in sales so far this year.

The median price for condos in Pinellas was $125,000. That's a decline of 21.9-percent from March of 2008.

So, I'm encouraged! How 'bout you? It looks like buyers are starting to get the deals they want from sellers who recognize that prices have to come down, and indeed those prices are coming down to the point where folks can actually buy property again. That's a win-win situation. If this trend continues, well, things just might start looking up for everybody.

For more information on real estate in the Tampa Bay area, visit my website at www.TheStPeteRealEstateSite.com.

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New Report Has Great News For Home Buyers

Tuesday's S&P/Case-Shiller home price index has great news for home buyers in the Tampa Bay area.

According to the highly respected index, home prices in Tampa Bay have backtracked to where they were five years ago.

Tampa Bay real estate values dropped 4.4-percent from December '08 to January '09. For the year ended January '09, values fell 23.3-percent. Local home prices are off 37.3-percent since reaching their peak in July of 2006 according to Case-Shiller.

Case-Shiller tracks real estate prices in 20 cities. The Tampa Bay area ranked seventh worst on the index. Other cities seeing big drops in real estate values included Phoenix down35-percent, Las Vegas down 32.5 percent, San Francisco down 32.4-percent, Miami down 29.4-percent, Los Angeles down 25.8-percent and San Diego down 24.9-percent.

Buyers should act now to take advantage of these falling real estate prices. There is still a huge selection of single family homes, condominiums, townhomes and income properties throughout the Tampa Bay area and, according to Case-Shiller, falling prices make them much more affordable -- just like to good ol' days in 2003 and 2004 before the big price run up.

The time to buy is now!

For more information on real estate in the Tampa Bay area, visit my website at www.TheStPeteRealEstateSite.com.

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